Provisional entrant forecast on hard from 10,000 simulations.
| Match | Tournament | Round | Surface | Favourite | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Swiss Indoors Basel - Basel, Switzerland | First | Hard | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 53.3% |
| Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur | Erste Bank Open - Vienna, Austria | First | Hard | Alex de Minaur | 69.6% |
| Alexander Binda vs Millen Hurrion | Ningboo Challenger, China | Q3 | Hard | Alexander Binda | 50.0% |
| Han Shi vs Alevtina Ibragimova | Guangzhou Open - Guangzhou, China | First | Hard | Alevtina Ibragimova | 50.9% |
| Ognjen Milic vs Kaichi Uchida | Ningboo Challenger, China | First | Hard | Ognjen Milic | 51.4% |
| Marin Cilic vs Zhizhen Zhang | Seoul Challenger, KOR | First | Hard | Marin Cilic | 67.1% |
Model rank 134, WTA rank 1126. Baseline is materially higher on this profile than the official rankings, with grass rating 82.
A compact scoring-state bridge keeps production probabilities anchored while exposing format effects.