WTAU.S. Open - New York, United States/1/4
Model probability47.1%
Favourite
Model probability52.9%
Set probabilities
Most likely score path from the set model.
Cori Gauff 2-036.6%
Mirra Andreeva 2-031.6%
Cori Gauff 2-116.3%
Mirra Andreeva 2-115.6%
Featured Forecast
Most interesting upcoming match
Most likely: 0-2
Tournament Forecast
Title race
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger, VIE
Provisional entrant forecast on hard from 10,000 simulations.
Max Purcell
Rank 226
23.0%
Philip Sekulic
Rank 312
6.8%
Hiroki Moriya
Rank 416
6.0%
Yuta Shimizu
Rank 365
5.3%
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Rank 255
5.1%
Kasidit Samrej
Rank 385
3.5%
Arthur Weber
Rank 250
3.0%
Upcoming
Upcoming Match Predictions
| Match | Tournament | Round | Surface | Favourite | Model probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | U.S. Open - New York, United States | 1/4 | Hard | Frances Tiafoe | 52.9% |
| Dusan Lajovic vs Martin Landaluce | Seville Challenger, Spain | First | Clay | Martin Landaluce | 57.9% |
| Lorenzo Sonego vs Francesco Passaro | Genoa Challenger, Italy | First | Clay | Lorenzo Sonego | 59.2% |
| Koki Matsuda vs Martin Borisiouk | Phan Thiet 3 Challenger, VIE | First | Hard | Koki Matsuda | 50.0% |
| Petr Bar Biryukov vs Denis Yevseyev | Shanghai Challenger, China | First | Hard | Petr Bar Biryukov | 50.4% |
| Pavel Kotov vs Elias Ymer | Shanghai Challenger, China | First | Hard | Pavel Kotov | 50.5% |
U.S. Open - New York, United States / 1/4 / Hard
FavouriteFrances Tiafoe 52.9%
Seville Challenger, Spain / First / Clay
FavouriteMartin Landaluce 57.9%
Genoa Challenger, Italy / First / Clay
FavouriteLorenzo Sonego 59.2%
Phan Thiet 3 Challenger, VIE / First / Hard
FavouriteKoki Matsuda 50.0%
Shanghai Challenger, China / First / Hard
FavouritePetr Bar Biryukov 50.4%
Shanghai Challenger, China / First / Hard
FavouritePavel Kotov 50.5%
Ratings
Top model ratings
Aryna SabalenkaWTA
Model rank 1 / Best surface: Hard
97
Overall
Elena RybakinaWTA
Model rank 2 / Best surface: Hard
94
Overall
Jannik SinnerATP
Model rank 1 / Best surface: Hard
93
Overall
Mirra AndreevaWTA
Model rank 3 / Best surface: Clay
93
Overall
Elina SvitolinaWTA
Model rank 4 / Best surface: Clay
93
Overall
Iga SwiatekWTA
Model rank 5 / Best surface: Clay
92
Overall
Player Spotlight
Brenda Fruhvirtova
Model rank 297, WTA rank 1289. Baseline is materially higher on this profile than the official rankings, with clay rating 85.
Overall
73
Model
297
WTA
1289
From the notebook
Why best-of-five changes the favourite curve
A compact scoring-state bridge keeps production probabilities anchored while exposing format effects.
Model Status
Last updated
8 Sept 2026, 11:51
Model version
posthoc_probability_calibration_candidate
Scaled log loss
0.848
Brier score
0.202
138 matches in latest forecast setModel notes