Economics

Australian Economic Outlook

A real chain-volume GDP nowcast and central 24-quarter macroeconomic forecast.
Generated 07/09/2026, 8:56:43 pm

GDP contribution vintages

National Accounts baseline plus one observation per release day. Every vintage uses the current model and sums to the headline nowcast.

v3.3 recency-calibrated bottom-up ensemble with BOP trade anchor

Low-coverage guardrail: Business investment, Dwelling investment currently lack a timely predictor that beats their component AR benchmark, so each is blended 50% toward its five-year trend.

Contribution changes by release

Each release date appears once; publications on the same day are applied together. The stack sums to the change in the headline nowcast.

Current-model replay: release charts isolate data news from model-version changes. Methodology gdp_nowcast_v3_3_bop_trade_anchor; the chart therefore measures data news, not changes caused by older model versions.

Latest scheduled release: 7 Sept | OECD CLI. Added observations for the current target quarter (1 new target-quarter series observations).

As of 07/09/2026, 8:40:42 pm. Source payload is produced independently by the GDP nowcast pipeline and published through the economics-only static data boundary.